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St. Louis-based voice assistant startup Disruptel is announcing that it has raised $1.1 million in seed funding.

The money comes from an impressive group of investors who seem well-aligned with what the startup is aiming to do — namely, build a voice assistant that can provide detailed information about what’s happening on your TV screen. Those investors include PJC and Progress Ventures (which led the round), along with DataXu co-founder and former CEO Mike Baker, Siri co-founder Adam Cheyer, Sky executive Andrew Olson and DataXu co-founder Bill Simmons.

Disruptel CEO Alex Quinn told me that he began to pursue the idea in high school — the initial idea was more focused on TV gesture controls, but he decided that there was a bigger opportunity in the fact that “smart TVs don’t know what’s going on on their own screen.”

So he said Disruptel has built technology that has “a contextual understanding of everything that’s happening on the screen — every product, all of that data.” So for example, you could use the technology to ask your TV, “Who is the person in the brown shirt?”

Quinn’s description reminded me of Amazon’s X-Ray technology, which can tell you about the actors on-screen, as well as additional trivia about whatever movie or TV you’re watching on Amazon Prime. But he said that Amazon’s solution (as well as a similar one from Google) involves “static data — the videos have all been pre-processed.” With Disruptel, on the other hand, “everything is happening in real time,” which means it could theoretically work with any piece of content.

Disruptel’s flagship product Context is a voice assistant designed to work with smart TVs and their remotes. Quinn said he’s hoping to partner with smart TV manufacturers and streaming services and get this into the hands of viewers in the second half of this year.

In the meantime, the company has already created a Smart Screen extension for Google Chrome that you can try right now (using the extension, I successfully identified the actors on-screen during multiple scenes of an episode of “The Flash”). Quinn said the company is using the extension as way to test the product and gather engagement data.

Baker (who sold his adtech company dataxu to Roku in 2019)  said that he was convinced to back the company after seeing a demo of the product: “It was interesting to see the power, the fluidity of the experience.”

He also suggested that Disruptel’s tech creates new opportunities to improve on the smart TV advertising experience, which he described as largely consisting of “crap” — though he also pointed to Hulu as an example of a service that can be successful with “non-intrusive advertising and interstitial ads.”

Asked how a high school student could create this kind of technology, Quinn (who is now 21) said, “We had to learn. Our team is very focused on machine learning, and our machine learning engineers were reading research paper after research paper. We think that we have found the best research solutions.”

He added that if Disruptel had followed the leads of the big players and focused on pre-processing content, “We would never even have begun that journey.”

Hello and welcome back to Equity, TechCrunch’s venture capital-focused podcast, where we unpack the numbers behind the headlines.

Natasha and Danny and Alex and Grace were all here to chat through the week’s biggest tech happenings. Like every week, we had to leave a lot of great stuff on the cutting-room floor. But, we did get to touch on a bunch of news that we feel really matters.

Also we do wind up talking about a few Extra Crunch pieces, which is where our deeper analysis on news items lives. If the paywall is a bother, you can get access while saving 50% with the code “EQUITY.”

Here’s what we got into:

Crypto-art and the NFT boom continue. Check out what Beeple just did. Danny has an opinion on the matter.The Roblox direct-listing does very little actually solve the IPO pricing issue. That said, well done Bloxburg.We talked about the Coursera S-1, which gave us the first financial peek into an education company revitalized by the pandemic.The numbers needed context, so our follow up coverage gives readers 5 takeaways from the Coursera IPO.Language learning has a market, and it’s big. We talked about Preply’s $35 million raise and why tutoring marketplaces make sense.Dropbox is buying DocSend, which makes pretty good sense. Even if the exit price won’t matter much for bigger funds. We’re still witnessing Dropbox and Box add more features to their product via acquisitions. Let’s see how it impacts their revenue growth.Zapier buys Makerpad. We struggled to pronounce Zapier, but did have some notes on the deal and what it might mean for the no-code space.Sticking the acquisition theme, PayPal bought Curv. If you were looking for more evidence that big companies are taking crypto seriously, well, here it is.And to close we nerded out about Neeva. Can a Google-competitor take on Google if it was founded by ex-Googlers?

The show is back Monday morning. Stay cool!

Equity drops every Monday at 7:00 a.m. PST, Wednesday, and Friday at 6:00 AM PST, so subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts!

 

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Another day brings another public debut of a multibillion-dollar company that performed well out of the gate.

This time it’s Coupang, whose shares are currently up just over 46% to more than $51 after pricing at $35, $1 above the South Korean e-commerce giant’s IPO price range. Raising one’s range and then pricing above it only to see the public markets take the new equity higher is somewhat par for the course when it comes to the most successful recent debuts, to which we can add Coupang.

The company’s mix of rapid growth and slimming deficits appear to have found an audience among public money types, so let’s quickly explore the price they paid. What was the company worth at its IPO price, and what is worth now? And, of course, we’ll want to calculate revenue run rates for each figure.

Oh — we’ll also need to calculate how much money SoftBank made. Inverted J-Curve indeed!

Coupang’s IPO and current value

As Renaissance Capital notes, Coupang boosted its share allocation to 130 million shares from 120 million. This made the value of both primary and secondary shares in its public offering worth a total of $4.55 billion. That’s a lot of damn money.

At its IPO price of $35, the same source pegged the company’s fully diluted IPO valuation at $62.9 billion. By our accounting, the company’s simple valuation at its IPO price came to $60.4 billion. Those numbers are close enough that we’ll just stick with the diluted number out of kindness to the company’s fans.

Doing some quick math, Coupang is worth around $92 billion at the moment. That’s a huge number that nearly zero companies will ever reach. Some do, of course, but as a percentage of startups that start, it’s an outlier figure.

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Venture capitalists love to talk investment theses: on Twitter, Medium, Clubhouse, at conferences. And yet, when you take a closer look, theses are often meaningless and/or misleading.

OpenVC is a new, open-source initiative to collect and analyze all publicly available VC theses to help founders more efficiently find the right investors — and vice-versa. For the first time, we are sharing here our initial conclusions. We hope you’ll upload your own thesis to benchmark yourself. We’ve identified six common patterns of how VCs articulate their theses and some best practices in doing so.

Our analysis is based on two complementary datasets:

125 theses so far submitted by investors into the OpenVC database.36 theses pulled directly from U.S. VC websites by David Teten and Sam Sabin, co-founder of Hireblue.

Our four primary conclusions:

Public theses are often inconsistent with how firms actually deploy capital. VC theses are often so vague that they’re meaningless. We found seven categories of VC theses, plus an eighth: the non-thesis. Investment theses are just hypotheses; the portfolio shows how accurate the hypothesis was.

For the sake of simplicity, we will consider “investment thesis” and “investment criteria” as equivalent terms moving forward, although we argue that the thesis leads to the investment criteria. We summarize how they interrelate in the table below.

1. Public theses are often inconsistent with how firms actually deploy capital

A typical VC thesis: “We invest in tech startups in Europe at an early stage.” However, our experience shows that in many cases “Europe” means a handful of countries, for instance, France, U.K. and Germany; and “tech” means B2B SaaS/fintech or consumer apps.

Thirty-four VC firms in OpenVC call themselves “early stage.” Yet 30% of those don’t actually invest in pre-revenue startups. The phrase is quite ambiguous; we suggest quantifying check size so that your investment preference is clearer.

Almost every VC says that they invest in the “best” founders. However, according to PitchBook Data, since the beginning of 2016, companies with women founders have received only 4.4% of venture capital deals. Those companies have garnered only about 2% of all capital invested. This is despite the fact that the data show you’re better off investing in women.

This lack of transparency results in confused founders who chase the wrong investors. In turn, investors are overwhelmed with poorly qualified opportunities.

2. VC theses are often so vague that they’re meaningless

Christoph Janz from Point Nine Capital wrote on Twitter:

The modal VC thesis is: “We invest in great teams addressing large markets with disruptive solutions.” Who invests in lousy teams addressing tiny markets with outdated solutions? Theses also tend to use the same words across many firms, e.g., “daring” and “bold.”

In particular, in our second dataset, we found a disproportionate number of theses focused on “technical” companies (vaguely defined) and focused on companies attacking “problems of the future rather than the present,” in various permutations of that language.

Top Visible Heuristics (in dataset of 36 U.S. VCs)	Occurrences
“Technical” companies (i.e., any mention of a focus on tech companies)	26
Local affinity or bias	10
Attack problems of the future rather than the present (or some variant)	9
Technical founders	7

Why are the investment criteria so imprecise on the VC websites? We have three theories, in descending order of importance:

Option value. Investors don’t want to be too restrictive and miss out on a deal. However, we’d argue that for most smaller managers who are not brand names, it’s better to be highly identified in your niche than being a generalist. Most limited partners we speak with agree.A desire to look “sexy” and politically correct as opposed to being honest. This is probably a major reason. For example, saying publicly, “We invest mostly in white/Asian men who went to Stanford like us” accurately describes numerous VCs, but doesn’t sound very politically correct.VCs are afraid to give out their secret sauce. We think this doesn’t make much sense; you can share your criteria without telling the whole logic behind them. Many top-tier VCs share detailed public theses.

3. We found seven categories of VC theses, plus an eighth: the non-thesis

It seems that every week a new agribusiness, consumer packaged goods company, bank, technology corporation, celebrity or Facebook friend announces support for regenerative agriculture.

For those of us who have been working on climate and/or agriculture solutions for the last couple of decades, this is both exciting and worrisome.

With the rush to be a part of something so important, the details and hard work, the incremental advancements and wins, as well as the big, hairy problems that remain can be overlooked or forgotten. When so many are swinging for the fences, it’s easy to forget that singles and doubles usually win the game.

As a managing partner and founder of DBL Partners, I have specifically sought out companies to invest in that not only have winning business models but also solve the planet’s biggest problems. I believe that agriculture can be a leading climate solution while feeding a growing population.

At the same time, I want to temper the hype, refocus the conversation and use the example of agriculture to forge a productive template for all business sectors with carbon habits to fight climate change.

First, let’s define regenerative agriculture: It encompasses practices such as cover cropping and conservation tillage that, among other things, build soil health, enhance water retention, and sequester and abate carbon.

The broad excitement around regenerative agriculture is tied to its potential to mitigate climate impact at scale. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine estimates that soil sequestration has the potential to eliminate over 250 million metric tons of CO2 per year, equivalent to 5% of U.S. emissions.

It is important to remember that regenerative practices are not new. Conservationists have advocated for cover cropping and reduced tillage for decades, and farmers have led the charge.

The reason these practices are newly revered today is that, when executed at scale, with the heft of new technology and innovation, they have demonstrated agriculture’s potential to lead the fight against climate change.

So how do we empower farmers in this carbon fight?

Today, offset markets get the majority of the attention. Multiple private, voluntary markets for soil carbon have appeared in the last couple of years, mostly supported by corporations driven by carbon neutrality commitments to offset their carbon emissions with credit purchases.

Offset markets are a key step toward making agriculture a catalyst for a large-scale climate solution; organizations that support private carbon markets build capacity and the economic incentive to reduce emissions.

“Farming carbon” will drive demand for regenerative finance mechanisms, data analytics tools and new technology like nitrogen-fixing biologicals — all imperatives to maximize the adoption and impact of regenerative practices and spur innovation and entrepreneurship.

It’s these advancements, and not the carbon credit offsets themselves, that will permanently reduce agriculture emissions.

Offsets are a start, but they are only part of the solution. Whether generated by forestry, renewable energy, transportation or agriculture, offsets must be purchased by organizations year after year, and do not necessarily reduce a buyer’s footprint.

Inevitably, each business sector needs to decarbonize its footprint directly or create “insets” by lowering the emissions within its supply chain. The challenge is, this is not yet economically viable or logistically feasible for every organization.

For organizations that purchase and process agricultural products — from food companies to renewable fuel producers — soil carbon offsets can indirectly reduce emissions immediately while also funding strategies that directly reduce emissions permanently, starting at the farm.

DBL invests in ag companies that work on both sides of this coin: facilitating soil carbon offset generation and establishing a credit market while also building fundamentally more efficient and less carbon-intensive agribusiness supply chains.

This approach is a smart investment for agriculture players looking to reduce their climate impact. The business model also creates demand for environmental services from farmers with real staying power.

Way back in 2006, when DBL first invested in Tesla, we had no idea we would be helping to create a worldwide movement to unhinge transportation from fossil fuels.

Now, it’s agriculture’s turn. Backed by innovations in science, big data, financing and farmer networking, investing in regenerative agriculture promises to slash farming’s carbon footprint while rewarding farmers for their stewardship.

Future generations will reap the benefits of this transition, all the while asking, “What took so long?”

Early Stage is the premier ‘how-to’ event for startup entrepreneurs and investors. You’ll hear first-hand how some of the most successful founders and VCs build their businesses, raise money and manage their portfolios. We’ll cover every aspect of company-building: Fundraising, recruiting, sales, product market fit, PR, marketing and brand building. Each session also has audience participation built-in – there’s ample time included for audience questions and discussion. Use code “TCARTICLE at checkout to get 20 percent off tickets right here.

Every company wants great relationships with its customers. The question what does it take to truly turn your connection with customers into a superpower?

Let's start very simply.

The most obvious (and most common) way to deepen a customer relationship is to ask for customer feedback so that you can improve your product. You do NPS (Net Promoter Score) surveys. You set up focus groups. You conduct user testing. You try to identify bugs. You try to collect, categorize and prioritize new feature requests. All good things to do. If you’re not doing those things, you should start. It’s good, clean living.

Next, there’s an even better thing to do. Don’t just get feedback on your product, get feedback on  your entire customer experience. What’s it like evaluating your product before buying? Was it easy to figure out pricing? Was a conversation with a sales person necessary? If so, was that conversation enjoyable or dreadful? What do customers think about the invoice emails they get from you? Are they clear? How do they feel about your support? Is your sales team helpful or aggressive when looking to upsell existing customers? Is your experience good enough that when the customer changes jobs, they take you with them to their new gig? If you’re not collecting feedback and seeking answers to these kinds of questions, you should start. It’s better, cleaner living.

Once you start getting good at this kind of customer feedback, there’s one more level to achieve. And, it’s not about “collecting feedback”. The inherent limitation with collecting customer feedback is that it’s all about you. How your product can get better. How your business can get better. Nothing wrong with your goal being to make your business better. That is a fine, understandable goal to have.

But, in order to truly build that deeper connection and understanding, it can't be about you. Not directly.

The next level is going beyond collecting customer feedback and connecting to a customer's hopes, dreams and fears. Remember, customers are people too.  How is your customer doing? Are they OK? What’s work been like? What’s life been like? What problems are they trying to solve? What is keeping them up at night?

Now, you might have this question in your head:

“Dharmesh, this is all well and good, but how is all that relevant to my business?”

It may or may not be relevant to your business. But I guarantee you it’s relevant to the customer. And they are relevant to your business.

You may find that response a tad too abstract and not sufficiently satisfying.

So, let me expand on it.

Let’s say you’re looking to spot new market trends before others. Find new adjacencies to expand your offering. Identify an acute market need. The best way to do these kinds of things is to understand your customers. Like, really understand them and what’s going on in their lives.

The ability to deeply connect with customers in this way is a super power.  

Does it scale? No. But, it doesn’t need to. Even if after a hundred conversations you uncover  just one transforming insight, it’s worth it. And you will. It’s just a matter of time.

At my company, HubSpot, we believe that we’re not just here to build software, we’re here to build careers. So, we really try to dig into the true needs of our customers. We ask ourselves not just what our software can do for them, but what our company can do for them. That mindset has served us well -- and I think it would work for you too.

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We’re just a few weeks out from the first TC Early Stage 2021 event on April 1-2. This two-day bootcamp helps early-inning founders develop core entrepreneurial skills for startup success. We’re talking essential topics led by experts in their field.

Case in point. Intellectual property is your bread and butter — you need to safeguard it and understand its value from a VC’s perspective. And while you’re an early-stage founder, it’s never too early to learn the ins and outs of mergers and acquisitions because you don’t ever want to get caught flatfooted — especially if your startup takes rapid flight.

With all that in mind, we’ve lined up a group of heavy hitters — from Perkins Coie, Merus Capital and Brainbase — to share their expertise on M&A and protecting IP. Don’t miss these three interactive breakout sessions with some of the best minds in the business.

Creating and Protecting IP Value in Connection with VC Financings (Perkins Coie)

How do venture capital investors value formal Intellectual Property (IP) rights when deciding to fund a technology or life sciences start-up? How do they conduct IP due diligence? How do investors and founders, post-funding, ensure their start-ups pursue an IP strategy that optimizes exit valuation for all? Perkins Coie partners Michael Glenn (Patent Prosecution) and Matt Oshinsky (Emerging Companies Venture Capital) join a seasoned venture capitalist to discuss these and other questions regarding safeguarding IP rights and maximizing the value of all technology development activities. Brought to you by Perkins Coie.

An M&A Playbook for Startup Founders – Lessons from Google & Microsoft (Merus Capital)

One of the most important decisions a founding team makes is when to consider selling the company to a strategic buyer. In this session, learn how to approach acquirors, avoid common pitfalls and maximize your chances for an eye-popping valuation. Hear from Sean Dempsey, founding partner of Merus Capital, who spent 10 years leading acquisitions for Google and Microsoft, and Dave Sobota, VP of Corporate Development at Instacart, and former M&A leader at Google. Brought to you by Merus Capital.

Naming & Protecting Your Company’s Intellectual Property (Brainbase)

You have an idea for a game-changing product or service — what do you call it? Once you’ve picked a name, how do you make sure nobody else is using it? Is the domain and Twitter handle available? Brainbase makes it easy for anyone to file a trademark without a lawyer, and instantly own your brand across all channels. In this session, company co-founder and CEO, Nate Cavanaugh explains the importance of owning your company’s trademark — both for brand protection and for fundraising due diligence. Brought to you by Brainbase.

Whew, that’s some good stuff right there. And you’ll find plenty more whip-smart presentations in the Early Stage 2021 agenda. Check it out and strategize your day.

TC Early Stage 2021: Operations and Fundraising takes place on April 1-2. Get your pass right here and join your colleagues to learn the best ways to build a startup. Pro tip: Attend both Early Stage 2021 events and double your knowledge. TC Early Stage 2021: Marketing and Fundraising runs July 8-9. Early-bird pricing on dual-event tickets remains in play until March 26 at 11:59 pm (PST). Buy yours before the deadline and save up to $100.

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If you’ve ever had to file a claim with your insurance company, you know that it’s not exactly fun. Often, you’re on hold indefinitely waiting to speak to a live person. And if you’ve ever had to file an auto or home insurance claim, you know that all the back and forth with your carrier and the various vendors can take up so much time.

Hi Marley is a Boston startup that has set out to modernize communications in the insurance space by giving carriers a way to “seamlessly” communicate with their policyholders via text. The company just closed on a $25 million Series B funding round to help scale its SMS platform.

Hi Marley also includes other vendors in that communications channel, such as car repair or rental companies. The goal is to keep policyholders happier and less likely to churn to another carrier, in addition to helping carriers resolve claims faster.

On the back end, Hi Marley is a platform of apps, APIs and a layer of intelligence that integrates with other core systems such as Guidewire and Duck Creek “to deliver critical insights” to the carriers, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Greene. Per its website, Hi Marley’s messaging solution aims to streamline communication around claims, underwriting and policyholder service interactions “while simultaneously connecting everyone who touches that insurance experience into a singular, real-time conversation.”

Demand is there, and no doubt the COVID-19 pandemic forcing more people to go digital has led to still more consumer demand for new ways to communicate. Last year, the number of carriers using Hi Marley’s platform doubled, and the company saw a 4x increase in its user base, Greene said. Currently, the startup has over 40 customers live in production — including American Family, MetLife, Auto-Owners, Erie and MAPFRE.

“Unlike horizontal chat solutions, we are tackling the entire communication layer across the insurance enterprise for our carriers and their ecosystem partners,” Greene told TechCrunch.

Greene is no stranger to the space, having worked in the insurance sector for years. He previously co-founded and led Futurity Group, which was acquired by AON, a software and services company focused on monitoring and improving performance in P&C insurance.

Emergence Capital led the Series B round, which brings Hi Marley’s total raised since its 2017 inception to $41.7 million. Existing backers Underscore, True Ventures, Bain Capital Ventures, and Greenspring also participated in the financing, along with additional investors including Brewer Lane.

Emergence Capital Founder & General Partner Gordon Ritter — who took a seat on Hi Marley’s board — said his firm has been focused on finding the next iconic industry cloud company within the vertical for “quite some time.” 

“In the same way Veeva [a company Ritter chaired to a successful IPO in 2013] expanded from CRM to additional software solutions that power the pharma industry, we continue to be bullish on startups building vertically-focused solutions that can power an entire industry,” Ritter said.

Historically, he added, insurance has been viewed as a necessary evil, a purchase made purely for the sake of safety and security. And in today’s environment, carriers using “old” communication strategies will likely see a negative impact on performance, Ritter believes.

“Most of us can likely agree that our experiences dealing with insurers during times of need have been less than ideal, if not unpleasant altogether,” said Ritter, who actually has family with roots in the insurance industry. “But Mike wants to reverse the indifference or negative reputation; he is on a mission to make insurance lovable… A new communication fabric between carriers and their ecosystem to benefit end customers is needed.”

Looking ahead, Hi Marley plans to use its new capital to create new features, ensure the platform scales across the enterprise and (naturally) do some hiring.

Early Stage is the premier ‘how-to’ event for startup entrepreneurs and investors. You’ll hear first-hand how some of the most successful founders and VCs build their businesses, raise money and manage their portfolios. We’ll cover every aspect of company-building: Fundraising, recruiting, sales, product market fit, PR, marketing and brand building. Each session also has audience participation built-in – there’s ample time included for audience questions and discussion. Use code “TCARTICLE at checkout to get 20 percent off tickets right here.

Some well-known VC firms have spent the last few months crunching data while working to chart, graph and map the world of venture investing. Happily for you and I, they’ve been pretty free with their time and data, helping us better understand today’s market for high-growth, software startups.

Last week The Exchange dug into data from Battery Ventures, which worked to explain some of the gains software companies have made in recent years in terms of their valuation multiples. The short gist is that multiples expansion — the repricing of software companies higher for each dollar of revenue they command — could be explained in part by segmenting the companies into various growth cohorts. Once accomplished, it’s easy to see that the fastest-growing software startups are enjoying the most price appreciation.

As one Battery investor explained, growth rates de-risk valuation multiples.

The Exchange explores startups, markets and money. Read it every morning on Extra Crunch, or get The Exchange newsletter every Saturday.

The logic is sound enough. I can doodle on it in a future column if you’d like. But today, instead of retreading familiar ground, we’re diving into new data from Bessemer, a VC group that should be familiar to Exchange readers thanks to its cloud index that we refer to quite often. Regardless, Bessemer’s 2021 cloud report is out, and it assists some of the work we did with Battery’s charts.

What we can do with Bessemer’s dataset is extend the argument from Battery’s report: Sure, strong growth rates de-risk multiples, but what the new report indicates is that growth rates themselves amongst cloud companies (modern software, SaaS, call it what you will) should prove more durable than nearly anyone historically expected.

You can quickly see the synthesis. If growth rates de-risk rising multiples, we can infer some logic to higher-growth companies being valued more richly than their slower-growing peers. But that doesn’t get us to understanding why multiples themselves might be rising, provided we wanted to find some argument for why they are sane. More durable growth rates, however, provide a possible answer.

Why? The longer a company can keep up its growth rate from year to year, the larger it will be in the future. Modern software companies do have a history of growth-rate retardation over time, but nearly never negative growth rates.

More durable growth today implies more cash generation in the future. Up go valuations, and, for the fastest-growing today, the bump in worth comes with the valuation downside protection inherent in quick growth.

Got all that? If not, don’t worry — I have charts. Let’s keep going.

A theory for why software valuations aren’t irrational (maybe)

The key reason that startup and public-company software valuations are so high is because investors are willing to pay those prices. Hungry for yield on their capital, buying growth via software has been a trade for some time. It was even accelerated last summer as the pandemic gripped the global economy.

Suddenly software was not just a possible place to bet on growth, it was also a durable place to stash cash, because without software the world would stop. And that couldn’t happen, so most folks kept paying their software bills.

You might think that the valuation gains companies saw as other stocks fell out of favor would fade. After all, if they got a bump and the bump faded, surely they would lose some air from their balloon. Kinda? But mostly it appears that software valuations have stayed pretty damn aloft. And this brings us to the future.

Check out the following chart, via the Bessemer report (and shared with permission), that I will explain immediately afterward:

Bessemer partner Mary D’Onofrio, one of the report’s lead authors and part of the growth team, told us that the x-axis is the growth rate of public software companies last year, while the y-axis is what it is managing in the current year. And that 0.8x? That’s the correlation.