The past is ungraspable,
the present is ungraspable,
the future is ungraspable.
â Diamond Sutra
Now that itâs 2018, the inevitable predictions for 2018 are upon us.
Iâm not a predictor. I never have been and donât expect I ever will be. However, I do enjoy reading a few of the predictions, most notably Fred Wilsonâs What Is Going To Happen In 2018.
Unlike past years, Fred led off this year with something I feel like I would have written.
âThis is a post that I am struggling to write. I really have no idea what is going to happen in 2018.â
He goes on to make some predictions but leave a lot in the âI have no ideaâ category.
I mentioned this to Amy and she quickly said:
And that, simply put, is my goal for 2018.
As I read my daily newsfeed this morning, I came upon two other predictions that jumped out at me, which are both second-order effects of US government policies changes.
The first is âtech companies will use their huge hoards of repatriated cash to buy other companies.â There is a 40% chance Apple will acquire Netflix, according to Citi and Amazon will buy Target in 2018, influential tech analyst Gene Munster predicts. The Apple/Netflix one clearly is linked to âApple has so much cash â they need to use it.â While the Amazon one is more about âAmazon needs a bigger offline partner than Whole Foodsâ, it feels like it could easily get swept in the âtons of dollars sloshing around in US tech companies â go buy things!â
The second is âget those immigrants out of the US, even if they are already here and contributing to our society.â H-1B visa rules: Trump admin considers tweak that may lead to mass deportation of Indians is the next layer down, where the Executive Branch can just modify existing rules that have potentially massive changes.
Iâve been reading The Lessons of History by Will and Ariel Durant. Various Cylons on BSG had it right when they said, âAll of this has happened before. All of this will happen again.â
Also published on Medium.